MATCH準備-統計

雖然說對大部分的人來說, 算自己match上的機率多少是還太早, 但是有些關鍵時刻(決定要報名多少PROGRAM , 要不要接受PREMATCH 的時候) 還是要知道一下自己的機會才不會做出笨笨的決定


現在回答幾個常見問題? (有些是我在umsleforum 的PO文所以直接複製貼上)


1.IMG找到工作的機會有多少?
According to the NBME data non-US IMG
Match rate is 40%
But obvious they didnt calculate the IMG who get prematched, because prematched IMG will either not join in NRMP or withdraw themselves
I quote the post for ECFMG "IMG performance in 2010 Match" http://www.ecfmg.org/announce.htm#match2010


Although the majority of PGY-1 positions in the United States are filled through the Match, a significant number of IMG applicants obtain positions outside of the Match. For example, while 4,698 IMGs obtained PGY-1 positions through the 2008 Match, 7,276 IMGs entered PGY-1 for the 2008-2009 academic year.


For some programs who really like IMGs, prematch is their main way of getting IMG resident, so actually there's large propotion of IMG who get prematch, according to 2008: 34.7% , in another word, 1 out of 3 IMG who get into PGY1 from Prematch,


So the real percentage of IMG who get the PGY1 job should be higher,
My personal guess would be 60% (for 2008)


However,  I think everyone should get a little tenses because this year is more competitive than the previous few years. Acoording to 2010 match : it's 164 applicants per position for IM
(http://www.nrmp.org/data/programresultsbyspecialty2010v3.pdf)-pg68


But this year the rejection I get from the community programs always tells me it's >200 applicants per position. The residency slots are increase but can't keep up with the growth of IMGs.

PGY1訓練人數和報名人數, 最近幾年有競爭越來越激烈的趨勢

For all of us it's still a game of 1 or 0, you either get the job or not. So try to be as competitive as possible

Step 1分數和match到的科的關係, 線條中間的橫槓是平均分數

2.我有X個inetrview, 我找到工作的機會多高?
I like math games so I can try to calculate how many jobs I can get using expected value(期望值), it's good to know my chance!! I type out my thinking process so if you are interested you can also try to calculate too.


According to this (http://www.nrmp.org/data/programresultsbyspecialty2010v3.pdf)


For IM the position: interview:application received = 1:16:164
For FM the position: interview:application received is 1:11:148
或是換成...
IM Application sent: interview=1:0.1
FM Application sent: interview=1:0.07


So I sent 88 IM and 30 FM,
on average, I would expect 8.8 IM interview (88x0.1)
and I would expect 2.1 FM interview (30x0.07)


In the matter of fact, my credential is average so I get 9 IM interview and 1 FM interview, that's pretty close.


And I can take one step further by calculate the expected value of a job after I get a known number of interview.(9 IM interview and 1 FM interview)


For IM the position: interview= 1:16
For FM the position: intervieew= 1:11
Or
IM interview: position=1:0.0625
FM interview: position=1:0.09


So I would expect 0.56 IM job and 0.09 FM job
I can only expect 0.65 job all together! It's far than enough to get 1 job.


For IMG the average value should be 0.6 job, and the expected value is not chance, so if you can get a number >1 means you are more than enough to get 1 job. However, Most of the people are < 1 so that's why I suggest take any prematch when it's offer, because the chance of not match is high.


However there's big variations of performace during the interview, so everyone could be the magic maker (match with 1 interview)

IM Interview數量 和MATCH 比率, 由圖可知IMG(Independent applicants),  有5個IV match機率50%, 有10個IV 80%, 有20個IV 接近100%, 如果考慮prematch 機率會比這些數字更高

IM Step 1分數和match比率的關係

IMG STEP2 成績, 有好成績不代表一定會MATCH但是成績不好機會會變的很低

大部分申請 IM的IMG都沒有research 或是publication

大部分的IMG都有1個以上的臨床work experience (有領薪水的就算, 所以INTERN/醫療替代役/醫院打工都算)

想要查詢其他科 Charting Outcome of Match 2009

另外有興趣的人可以到NRMP網站download 歷年來的統計data
Program Director Survey 2010


3. 我要報名幾個program 才夠?

依照上面的比例, 如果自己知道CREDENTIAL 不好的話, 至少要>100個PROGRAM, 尤其是今年這麼競爭的情況真的要多報一點

但是報名多少個program最大的限制因素還是錢....
最多可以報名3個speciality, 每一個speciality 分開計算

第1-10個program: $7.5, 第10-20個program:$ 8, 第 20-30個program :$15, >30個program:$25

我報了88個IM 和 30個 FM
IM的部分 :75+80+150+1375=1680
FM的部分 :75+80+150=305
總共六萬多台幣

自己看看自己的經濟情況, 咬著牙花下去吧!